NOTE: This script is for learning purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation for buying or selling any stock mentioned in this script.
SUMMARY: This project aims to construct and test an algorithmic trading model and document the end-to-end steps using a template.
INTRODUCTION: This algorithmic trading model examines a simple trend-following strategy for a stock. The model enters a position when the price reaches either the highest or lowest points for the last X number of days. The model will exit the trade when the stock’s MACD histogram switches side.
In addition to the stock price, the models will also use the absolute price oscillator (APO) indicator to confirm the buy/sell signal further. Finally, the strategy will also incorporate a profit/loss threshold. The strategy will exit the position when the profit or loss has reached the established threshold.
In this Take1 iteration, we will set up the models using a trend window size for long trades only. The window size will vary from 10 to 20 trading days at a 5-day increment. We will use 10 to 20 days for the fast EMA curve and 40 to 50 days for the slow EMA curve. The models will also incorporate an APO indicator with a range of plus and minus 2 to 4 dollars. Furthermore, we will establish a profit cap of 15% and a loss threshold of 8%.
ANALYSIS: In this Take1 iteration, we analyzed the stock prices for Costco Wholesale (COST) between January 1, 2018, and March 19, 2021. The top trading model produced a profit of 136.38 dollars per share. The buy-and-hold approach yielded a gain of 109.12 dollars per share.
CONCLUSION: For the stock of COST during the modeling time frame, the long-only trading strategy with profit/loss limits did not produce a better return than the buy-and-hold approach. We should consider modeling this stock further by experimenting with more variations of the strategy.
Dataset ML Model: Time series analysis with numerical attributes
Dataset Used: Quandl
The HTML formatted report can be found here on GitHub.