NOTE: This script is for learning purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation for buying or selling any stock mentioned in this script.
SUMMARY: This project aims to construct and test an algorithmic trading model and document the end-to-end steps using a template.
INTRODUCTION: This algorithmic trading model examines a simple mean-reversion strategy for a stock. The model enters a position when the price reaches either the upper or lower Bollinger Bands for the last X number of days. The model will exit the trade when the stock price crosses the middle Bollinger Band of the same window size.
In this Take1 iteration, we will set up the models using a trend window size for long trades only. The window size will vary from 10 to 50 trading days at a 5-day increment, and we will fix the Bollinger Band factor at 2.0.
ANALYSIS: In this Take1 iteration, we analyzed the stock prices for Costco Wholesale (COST) between January 1, 2016, and May 7, 2021. The top trading model produced a profit of 101.66 dollars per share. The buy-and-hold approach yielded a gain of 223.02 dollars per share.
CONCLUSION: For the stock of COST during the modeling time frame, the long-only trading strategy with fixed Bollinger Band factor did not produce a better return than the buy-and-hold approach. We should consider modeling this stock further by experimenting with more variations of the strategy.
Dataset ML Model: Time series analysis with numerical attributes
Dataset Used: Quandl
The HTML formatted report can be found here on GitHub.